Models & Modeling tools

AGRODEP provides a platform for sharing existing core economic models dealing with sector, national, and international policy issues as well as long-term projections in areas such as agricultural growth and poverty, trade, nutrition, climate change, natural resources management, and science and technology.

The models’ library (shared modeling infrastructure) is organized around two main pillars: simulation models and econometric models. The main goal of simulation models is to perform ex-ante analysis of various economic policies (e.g. investment decision in agricultural R&D in different sectors, potential effects of a trade agreement) or to disentangle different effects of existing policies (e.g. interaction between export taxes and import duties in international trade relations). Simulation models include Computable General Equilibrium models and Partial Equilibrium models, both in deterministic and stochastic versions, working in a static or a dynamic framework. The main software packages needed to use these models are GAMS or MS Excel.

Econometric models are primarily aimed to assess the effects of existing policies (e.g. consequences of exchange rate policies on agricultural exports) or to identify and quantify the drivers of an economic phenomenon (e.g. determinants of trade in a gravity equation). They are also used to estimate key parameters used in simulation models (e.g. price transmission magnitude between international and domestic markets). The econometric methods used in the library include parametric and non-parametric approaches. Most of the econometric programs will require the use of STATA.

The library includes models developed and fully supported by the AGRODEP team, as well as links to models developed and managed by other partners. For instance, concerning CGE models, the former category includes models such as the IFPRI Standard Model or the MIRAGE model, while the later includes the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model.

In addition to “pure models,” the library includes a set of resources supporting the modeling work. These resources include pedagogic materials and submodules required to run the main models. The former includes the GAMS training toolbox while the latter contains the TASTE program and the Consistent Policy Aggregator Toolbox.

The modeling tools will, as the Consortium progresses, be expanded to include a set of specialized modules devoted to specific technical areas and economic sectors. Such modules will be added as needed through collaboration with other leading centers of expertise to address special needs, such as in the areas of agronomy, forestry or concerning specialized topics such as the food crisis and climate change risks and adaptation.

Model Selection

In order to assist with the decision process of which model to use, AGRODEP has prepared a guide with information on the models present in the library. The table shown below provides the model classifications, information on scale, dynamics, market structure, and more. We also include information on dates and data sources for easy viewing. 

 
Class of model
Single country CGE model
Single country CGE model
Single country CGE model
Multi-market partial equilibrium model
Similar models
PEP 1-1, STAGE
IFPRI standard model, STAGE
STAGE, IFPRI standard model, RIAPA
ATPSM, PE-trade model, EMM
Dynamics
static
static
Recursive dynamic
Recursive dynamic
Temporal scale
Short-term (1-3yrs)
Short-term (1-3yrs)
Medium-term (10-20yrs)
Medium-term (10-20yrs)
Spatial scale
National
National
National
Global (default version: 15 countries/regions)
Market clearance
National market clears prices
National market clears prices
National market clears prices
National markets clear prices
Structure of trade
bilateral trade is not tracked
bilateral trade is not tracked
bilateral trade is not tracked
bilateral trade is tracked
Sectors/products
Depends on the focus country SAM: usually 10-20 sectors
Depends on the focus country SAM: usually 10-20 sectors
Depends on the focus country SAM: usually 10-20 sectors
Products defined at HS6 level (more than 5,000 sectors)
Production factors
Depends on the focus country SAM: usually 3-5 factors
Depends on the focus country SAM: usually 3-5 factors
Depends on the focus country SAM: usually 3-5 factors
n/a
Household groups
Depends on the focus country SAM: usually 5-10 representative groups
Depends on the focus country SAM: usually 5-10 representative groups
Depends on the focus country SAM: usually 5-10 representative groups
1 representative household per country/region
Examples of
Application (Topic)
Economywide policy analysis: trade, public investment, fiscal policies
Economywide policy analysis: trade, public investment, fiscal policies
Economywide policy analysis: trade, public investment, fiscal policies
Trade policy, trade agreements
Main data sources
Country SAMs
Country SAMs
Country SAMs
COMEXT, BACI and MAcMap-HS6v2
Current base year
Policy intervention year
Policy intervention year
Policy intervention year
Policy intervention year (default version: 2007)
References
 
 
Class of model
Multi-market partial equilibrium model
Multi-market partial equilibrium model
Regional multi-market model
Multi-region partial equilibrium model
 
Similar models
ATPSM, PETS, EMM
RICEFLOW (Durand-Morat & Wailes, 2003)
IMPACT (core model)
EMM, ERATO
Dynamics
static
static
Recursive dynamic
Recursive dynamic
Temporal scale
Short-term (1-3yrs)
Short-term (1-3yrs)
Medium-term (10-20yrs)
Longer-term (25-35yrs)
Spatial scale
Global (default version: 11 countries/regions)
Regional (default version: 5 countries)
Regional (10-15 countries in average)
National or regional markets clear prices
Market clearance
Global markets clear prices
National markets clear prices
Regional market clears prices
National/regional markets clear prices
Structure of trade
bilateral trade is not tracked
bilateral trade is tracked
bilateral trade is not tracked
bilateral trade is not tracked
Sectors/products
Depends on the focus value chain, up to the user (default version: oilseeds)
1 product/sector
Default version: 49 agricultural and agri-food products and 2 non agricultural products
Up to the user (1 product at a time)
Production factors
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Household groups
1 representative household per country/region
1 representative household per country/region
2 representative groups: urban and rural
1 representative producer and 1 representative consumer
Examples of
Application (Topic)
Trade policy, productivity shocks, tax changes in a sectoral value chain
Analysis of trade costs, transportation costs
Regional trade analysis, impact of productivity growth
Economic impacts of agricultural research &
development (R&D) under different policy, market, technology, and adoption conditions
Main data sources
FAO Food balance sheets and FAPRI
FAOSTAT, COMTRADE and
MAcMap HS-6
FAOSTAT and WDI
FAOSTAT and WDI
Current base year
Policy intervention year (default version: 2007)
Policy intervention year (default version: 2005)
Depends on the study, intervention year
Up to the user, depends on the study, intervention year
References
 
 
MIRAGRODEP
Class of model
Global multi-country CGE model
Global multi-country CGE model
Global multi-country CGE model
Global multi-market model
Similar models
GTAP, WB-LINKAGE, GLOBE, PEP-w-t
MIRAGRODEP, WB-LINKAGE, GLOBE, PEP-w-t
GTAP, LINKAGE, GLOBE, PEP-w-t
 
RENAPRI-PE, OECD-AGLINK, FAO-COSIMO
Dynamics
Recursive dynamic
Recursive dynamic
Recursive dynamic
Recursive dynamic
Temporal scale
Medium-term (10-20yrs)
Medium-term (10-20yrs)
Medium-term (10-20yrs)
Longer-term (25-35yrs)
Spatial scale
Global with max 140 countries/regions
 
Global with max 140 countries/regions
(version GTAP-AEZ with sub-national disaggregation)
Global (max 140 countries) MIRAGRODEP-AEZ allows for sub-national levels (5-10 in average)
 
Global with 159 countries and 320 food producing units (FPUs)
Market clearance
National/regional markets clear prices
National/regional markets clear prices
National/regional markets clear prices
Global market clears prices
Structure of trade
bilateral trade is tracked
bilateral trade is tracked
bilateral trade is tracked
bilateral trade is not tracked
Sectors/products
Default structure: 57 sectors/ products
Default structure: 57 sectors/ products
Default structure: 57 sectors/ products
Within FPUs: 45 agriculture and 17 processing
Production factors
2 labor (skilled/unskilled), 1 land, and 2 capital (natural resource/other)
2 labor (skilled/unskilled), 1 land, and 2 capital (natural resource/other)
2 labor (skilled/ unskilled), 1 land, and 2 capital (natural resource/ other)
Dual-dual version with urban and rural labor markets
n/a
Household groups
1 representative agent (includes the government)
1 representative household
One representative household
(with 50+ groups in focal countries with MIRAGRODEP HH)
n/a
Examples of
Application (Topic)
Global and regional trade policy
Global and regional trade policy
Global and regional trade policy
Global production/price projections;
Agriculture technology assessments;
climate change impacts
Main data sources
GTAP: SAMs
GTAP: SAMs
GTAP: SAMs
FAOSTAT (PRODSTAT and FBS) ,(LSMS-equivalent surveys for focal countries for household level analysis in MIRAGRODEP-HH)
FAOSTAT
Current base year
2011
2011
2011
2005
References
Original: Rosegrant et al. (1995)

 

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